The drive to become Japan’s next Prime Minister starts on Friday with four candidates, including two women hoping to lead the country.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced that he would not compete for the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The party will select the Prime Minister based on the votes on September 29 and will contest a general election by late November.
“In this race, given that the factions aren’t endorsing anyone officially, it’s a kind of a free-for-all,” said Tobias Harris, senior fellow for Asia at the Center for American Progress.
The LDP is expected to retain power and the leader will most probably leading the world’s third-largest economy. While outspoken vaccine chief Taro Kono leads public opinion polls on who should be Japan’s next leader, the result is doubtful as most of the party’s major factions are not backing a candidate.
Ex-foreign minister Fumio Kishida, who heads a large LDP faction is the main competitor in the race. The other two candidates will become Japan’s first female leader, both right-winger Sanae Takaichi and former gender equality minister Seiko Noda.
The voting will be over two rounds, if needed, with 383 lawmakers and an equal number of rank-and -file members voting in the first instance. But in a close competition, the top two moves to a second-round involving 383 lawmakers and one party representative from each of Japan’s 47 regions.
“Insiders are ultimately going to make or break the winner,” said Harris, adding that Kono’s popular support means that he “probably has the edge, but if he has a lead, it’s a very vulnerable one.”
Suga took office in September 2020 and his term has been spoiled by the Covid-19 pandemic and with the Tokyo Olympics failing to increase his popularity. Since World War II, only five politicians have maintained the term of Prime Minister for five years or longer.
