People acquainted with the situation claimed that, with indications of significant fall in fertility rates, Odisha would examine this week whether its two-child policy in gramme panchayats and zilla parishads needs to be reconsidered.
According to a UN Population Fund concept note on the state's demographic transitions, the government should reconsider provisions of the Odisha Gram Panchayat Act that prohibit anyone with more than two children from contesting elections, now that the target of lowering the total fertility rate to below 2% has been met.
According to the concept note, Odisha's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in 2015-16, citing the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21).
TFR is the predicted number of children a woman will have during her reproductive years. In a nutshell, it's the average number of kids in a nuclear household.
According to the concept note, the 15-year decrease in TFR, which averaged over 1.9 percent each year, was one of the sharpest in fertility history. “Odisha is projected to witness ‘baby bust’. Between 2011-2036, Odisha will see 25% fewer babies, which in absolute terms, is projected to be around 0.7 crore less births in 2036 compared to 2011. Odisha may like to revisit the existing policy frameworks for adolescents and young people, old age people, urban development and women empowerment,” the note said.
The two-child rule in panchayats began shortly after the 1991 census, when the National Development Council established a population committee in 1992, chaired by then-Kerala Chief Minister K Karunakaran. Before the NDC committee's recommendations were received, Rajasthan implemented the two-child rule for panchayats and municipalities in 1992. In 1993, Odisha made it mandatory for zilla parishads, and in 1994, it became mandatory for panchayat samitis and gramme panchayats.
Bijay Panigrahi, the director of family welfare in Odisha, declined to comment on the message, claiming it was a government policy decision.
A meeting on UNPF suggestions is scheduled on June 11, according to a planning and convergence department official.
However, a senior official from the panchayati raj department believes that repealing the provision would be unwise.
“In a poor state such as Odisha where the percentage of people living below poverty line is still high, we would not want families to become bigger. Despite the declining TFR, it is not as if population growth has become stagnant. I don’t think the state government will do away with the two child norm,” he said.
According to the concept note, there is major sex selection happening in Odisha and families now prefer only male child, citing the NFHS-5, which revealed a fall in sex ratio at birth in 18 of the state's 30 districts. "The future will be bleak unless the phenomena and practise are addressed and remedied."
According to the UNFPA, even though the population growth rate has slowed, Odisha's population of 4.1 crores in 2011 would expand to roughly 4.9 crores in 2036.
It also warned that Odisha's population is ageing at a quicker rate than the rest of the country, with the number of people aged 60 and up expected to rise by 114% between 2011 and 2036. Odisha's old age or 60+ population is expected to grow from 0.38 crore in 2011 to 0.83 crore in 2036, according to the report.
